How will it be ratified ?
Most countries plan to ratify the Lisbon Treaty through their Parliaments, which is less likely to produce a negative result than a referendum.
So far only one country, Ireland, has stated that it will definitely hold a referendum. Although Irish voters rejected the Nice Treaty in 2001, most observers believe a comfortable majority will back the Reform Treaty in Summer 2008.
Although Denmark had been planning to have a referendum on the constitution, the Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen has decided that it would not be necessary to have a vote on the new Treaty because a government investigation had concluded no new transfer of sovereignty was involved.
The Lisbon Treaty will enter into force on 1 January 2009, provided that all 27 Member States ratify it.
When will it be ratified ?
Hungary became the first country to ratify the treaty on 17 December 2007.
In 29 January 2008, Slovenia current EU Presidency became the second Member State to ratify the new EU Treaty in its national parliament.
A bit later on 29 January 2008, Malta became the third country to give the go-ahead to the document, with its parliament voting unanimously to approve a motion of ratification.
Romania, one of the last two countries to join the EU, ratified the EU Treaty on 4 February 2008.
On 8 February 2008, France has approved the new EU treaty, drawing a line under the shock ’No’ vote of almost three years ago when French voters rejected the original EU constitution.
Bulgaria, one of the EU’s most recent Member States, on 21 March became the sixth country to ratify the EU’s Lisbon treaty.
The Polish parliament’s lower house approved the Treaty on 1 April following an agreement with the conservative opposition for the adoption of a parliamentary resolution that would contain references to Poland’s sovereignty in the face of EU legislation. But, the Polish president has refused to sign off on the treaty unless Ireland overturns its No.
On 10 April 2008, Slovakia has become the ninth country to ratify the new EU Treaty as deputies approved the text by a margin of 103 votes to five - after settling a dispute over a controversial media bill that had dragged on for months.
On 23 April 2008, the Portuguese Parliament has overwhelmingly voted in favour of ratifying the EU’s new Reform Treaty – named after the country’s capital, where it was signed by European leaders last December.
On 24 April 2008, Austria and Denmark approved the text.
On 8 May 2008, Lithuania and Latvia adopted the Treaty.
On 23 May 2008, Germany ratified the Treaty. But the German constitutional court verdict is expected in early 2009.
On 29 May 2008, Luxembourg gave its green light to the Treaty.
On 11 June 2008, the Finnish, Estonian and Greek Parliaments have ratified the EU’s Lisbon Treaty, just a day before Irish citizens are to cast their vote on the document in a referendum being closely watched across Europe.
On 12 June 2008, Irish have rejected EU Lisbon treaty : No vote won 53.4 per cent of vote with an average turnout of around 54 per cent.
In a first public statement minutes after the Lisbon Treaty referendum results, Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen said that the verdict must be respected, but was unclear on whether he would rule out a second referendum on the document.
The European Commission has called for ratification of the Lisbon Treaty to continue, despite a negative result of the referendum in Ireland. In a joint statement, France and Germany also said the process should continue.
What is not clear is how the eight EU member states that have not yet ratified the Treaty will proceed, and what, if any, measures will be taken to broker a compromise with the Irish.
On 16 June, EU Foreign Affairs Ministers will explore possibilities to go forward. Ahead of the summit of EU heads of state and government on 19-20 July, the Foreign Ministers have been entrusted by their governments with the task of trying to come up with a face-saving formula to keep ambitious plans outlined in an 89-page 18-month programme for the French, Czech and Swedish presidencies afloat.
Lately, the Irish government informed that it is seriously considering the possibility of moving a second referendum on the EU’s Lisbon Treaty forward from October to June to coincide with this year’s European elections.
On 19 June 2008, the British parliament has ratified the Lisbon Treaty.
On 3 July 2008, Cyprus has ratified the Treaty.
On 8 July 2008, with ‘yes’ votes in its two chambers, the Dutch Parliament has now approved the Treaty of Lisbon. The Netherlands, which hosted the ceremony marking the signature of the Treaty on European Union at Maastricht in 1992, has thus reasserted its European vocation.
On 10 July 2008, Belgium ratified the Treaty.
On 15 July 2008, Spain says ‘Si’ to Treaty of Lisbon.
On 31 July 2008, Italy endorsed the new Treaty.
On 20 November, the Swedish parliament adopted the Lisbon Treaty by a sweeping majority, becoming the 23rd EU country to ratify the text.
On 25 November, the Czech Republic’s Constitutional Court has cleared the way for the country’s Parliament to ratify the Lisbon Treaty. On 18 February, the Czech Republic took the first step toward ratification of the EU’s new set of institutional rules when the Lower House of Parliament passed the EU Treaty 125 deputies voted in favour and 61 against). On 6 May, the Czech Senate gave its green light on the Treaty
However, the President Vaclav Klaus must also sign the document for ratification to be completed. But he reiterated his opposition to the document and warned that it would face further political and even legal challenges.
What if the Treaty is not ratified ?
With the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty set at the very least to be delayed if not yet abandoned, the European Parliament is likely to be elected according to the existing EU rules, a development despised by most MEPs, as it means the Union’s only directly elected institution will have fewer powers and members than originally projected.
By extending so called co-decision, the procedure that involves both the Parliament and Member States participating in the legislative process, the new rules would enable the bloc’s assembly to become an equal legislator with national governments for 95 percent of Europe’s legislation.
Most importantly, MEPs would vote on the entirety of Union’s budget - worth some €120 billion per year - rather than merely on those sections of it enumerated by the Nice treaty. Additionally, the new Parliament would be able to vote on the multi-year budget, the so-called financial framework. The current 2007-2013 package is worth €864.3 billion.
However, given that the Lisbon innovations stumbled at the Irish hurdle, the new EU legislature - to be elected in June 2009 - is set to be stuck with the Nice treaty, adopted in 2000 and in force since 2003.
At the moment, the Parliament consists of 785 members from 27 countries. Under the Lisbon Treaty, the number of seats would shrink to 751, in line with the bloc’s strategy to keep the complement of MEPs to a manageable number. However, the Nice treaty ratchets down the number of seats to 736, which means fewer deputies from 12 countries - in a situation when the EU has actually enlarged to 27 member states, which has been the case since Bulgaria and Romania joined the bloc in 2007.
Some prominent parliamentarians have already threatened that they would press for the same rule to apply in the case of the European Commission and its composition, which should under the Nice treaty also be reduced, meaning that some countries could lose their member in the only institution allowed to propose new EU laws.
However, according to several Commission officials, it is widely expected in the EU executive that the national capitals will simply unanimously agree to keep the existing number of Commissioners - 27 - one each per Member State, while the number of MEPs will be reduced.
For further information :
Treaty of Lisbon website on Europa
EPHA related article
The Lisbon Treaty and its impact on the European Parliament
