Despite strong efforts to control the current epidemic of Avian Flu in South Asian countries, the H5N1 strain has increased its geographical range. It is getting closer to Europe, while various governments begin to consider the threat seriously.
Cases of infected chickens closer to Europe - Stabilisation of human cases
At the beginning of August, experts from the OIE (the World Organisation for Animal Health...) and FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations) have confirmed outbreaks of Low and High pathogenic Avian Influenza in Russia, Kazakhstan and Mongolia (in July).
So far, 14 countries have reported cases of Avian Flu in Asia (Low or High Pathogenic). In addition to Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, China, South Korea, Malaysia, Cambodia, Philippines, Hong Kong and Laos, 4 countries are to be added to the list: Russia, Japan, Kazakhstan and Mongolia since the beginning of July 2005. The FAO warns that India and Bengladesh are particularly at risk.
In Russia, the epidemic has progressively spread to affect 6 administrative regions. As of the end of August, cases have been reported in both small backyard flocks and large farms. No human cases have been reported in the region as of the 31 August 2005.
Experts believe that the infection is spread by migratory birds, although it has not been proven. Migratory birds can carry the H5N1 virus over long distances without developing symptoms of the disease.
On the other hand, confirmed human cases have not increased: 112 cases and 57 deaths. Human cases, most of which have been linked to direct contact with poultry have been confirmed in four countries: Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia. Only a few instance of human-to-human transmission have been recorded, although the WHO fears that China may not transmit accurate data to the international organisations.
The expanding geographical range increases the opportunities for human cases and in turn, the opportunity for the virus to increase transmissibility to the human being.
Scaling up action in the European Union
Considering the risk that Avian Flu might infect European poultry via migratory birds, several member states (such as the UK, France and the Netherlands) step up their emergency planning.
The most notable example is the Netherlands which decided to ban outdoors poultry so as to prevent the risk of contact between birds and poultry flocks.
Aware of the danger, the European Commission convened a meeting of the Standing Committee on the Food Chain and Animal Health working group on the 25 August. Although experts agreed that the current situation is very serious, they assessed the risk of a transmission of the virus via migratory birds routes as low. They have nevertheless, called for an urgent review and intensification of the surveillance programmes. Existing contingency and awareness programmes shoudl also be reviewed.
Slight progress on vaccines and antivirals
A pharmaceutical company has donated three million doses of the currrent most efficient antiviral to the World Health Organisation (WHO). The WHO is in the process of creating an international antiviral stockpile that could help mitigating the impact of a potential pandemic in under-ressourced countries. However, the WHO stockpile is meant to complement (and not replace) other national and international preparedness measures.
Several companies reported having begun clinical trials to develop a vaccine that could stop a potential human influenza pandemic. However the challenge of mass production remains. Early results are expecting in the coming months.
Coming Steps
Regarging Avian Influenza, the European Parliament should begin to debate about a new European Legislation on Avian Influenza in September.
On the 22 September, coordination of veterinary and public health measures will be discussed by the Chief Medical Officers and Chief Veterinary Officers;
A Green paper on Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Planning is expected in September 2005;
The Commission will organise a European-wide exercice to test communication exchange of information and interaction between competent authorities at EU and national levels in Autumn 2005.A conference is planned to evaluate results afterwards.
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